Discussion about this post

User's avatar
J.K. Lund's avatar

The problem is that depopulation is a self-reinforcing cycle. Many "developed" countries have made unsustainable commitments to pension and healthcare systems that depended on tax revenue from a growing workforce and economy. As the age dependency ratio rises and expense of maintaining these systems balloons, the only choice is to 1) Cut the benefits or 2) Raise taxes on the young. The latter seems to be preferred.

But the latter "solution" only adds to the burden on the young and discourages more children, reinforcing the cycle. At Risk & Progress, I have repeatedly argued that depopulation is the single greatest threat to humanity this century. It threatens to dampen growth, dampen specialization of labor, as well as weaken innovation capacity.

There do not seem to be any good solutions as pro-fertility policies I have studied this far have only had minor effects (though I will be exploring some more in another essay). Ironically, this comes at a time where we are also getting close to AI. Perhaps, if AI is aligned and safe, AI could mitigate the effects of global stagnation.

Expand full comment
Michael Magoon's avatar

Interesting essay.

I am not disagreeing with you, but I would say that it is less about absolute population, and more about the population living in cities. Rural areas rarely make major contributions to science or technological innovation. The people in rural areas are too spread out geographically, and they focus their labor on getting enough food to eat. City dwellers have the time to focus on solving other problems, and the geographical concentration to share ideas and learn from others.

This matters because for virtually all of human history, few people lived in cities. If present trends continue, we will keep getting more urbanized, which might counteract lower populations.

Expand full comment
12 more comments...

No posts